Middle East tensions continue to disrupt airline capacity, global flight networks

Dhaka: The aviation sector is once again dealing with a rapidly changing and uncertain environment as tensions in the Middle East continue to unfold. While there is some cautious hope for a resolution, airlines remain focused on managing the immediate operational challenges. Looking at current schedule data for the week of March 23, as well as projections for the weeks ahead, it is clear that carriers are adjusting quickly to the ongoing disruption.

In the early stages of such crises, airline operations often fall into what can best be described as “managed chaos.” Flight schedules are thrown off, aircraft and crew end up in the wrong locations, and passengers grow increasingly frustrated—especially as airlines themselves work to piece together reliable information in real time.

Now, roughly a month into the disruption, about 1.7 million seats have been removed from schedules. This represents nearly one-third of the capacity that had originally been planned for the final week of February. Current data suggests capacity could rebound to around 4.4 million seats next week, but this may be overly optimistic. It is likely that airlines based in the region will continue trimming their schedules, potentially keeping weekly capacity closer to 3.6 million for the time being.

The impact has not been uniform across all carriers. Airlines based in Saudi Arabia appear to be operating close to normal levels, largely supported by strong domestic demand—a factor not seen elsewhere in the region. In contrast, major hub carriers have made significant cuts compared to pre-conflict operations. Emirates has reduced capacity by about 40 percent, Qatar Airways by 62 percent, Etihad by 50 percent, and Air Arabia by 64 percent.

Additionally, 44 airlines that had planned Middle East operations in late February have suspended all services through at least the end of April. Together, these cancellations account for roughly 245,000 seats per week. Looking further ahead, reductions continue: Wizz Air has cancelled more than 450 flights scheduled for late May, while British Airways has cut 266 flights that were previously available for booking.

Asian airlines to rescue

There has been speculation that reduced connectivity through the Middle East might prompt Asian airlines to boost direct services between Asia and Europe, particularly from hubs like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur. However, early indications suggest this shift has been minimal. For May, only limited increases are visible. Singapore Airlines has added 13 extra flights to London Gatwick, while Turkish Airlines has scheduled 35 additional services across routes including Beijing and Bangkok.

In reality, the idea that airlines can easily redeploy aircraft to new markets at short notice is largely impractical. Adding routes requires aircraft availability, crew resources, and sufficient demand—factors that are not easily aligned, especially for what may be a temporary opportunity. As a result, most airlines have opted to stick with their existing plans rather than making major adjustments.

For the industry, this situation is not entirely unfamiliar. Airlines are once again adapting to external shocks while hoping for stability to return. Regional carriers are expected to restore operations relatively quickly once conditions improve, given the importance of their hub networks. For international airlines, however, the recovery may be more gradual, potentially taking several months before services return to previous levels. Nonetheless, a full recovery is expected over time.