Thailand tourism faces decline as rivals advance

Dhaka: Thailand’s tourism sector is losing momentum as regional competitors attract more visitors and domestic challenges weigh on the industry. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) forecasts international arrivals will fall 4.5 percent to 31.5 million in 2026, below its earlier projection of 32–34 million.

The estimate compares with nearly 33 million foreign visitors in 2025. UTCC President Thanavath Phonvichai cited geopolitical tensions, fluctuating oil prices and rising travel costs among the factors affecting demand.

A survey of 368 tourism businesses found that 48.1 percent attributed the recent decline primarily to external pressures. Domestic issues, including limited flights, visa uncertainty, border delays and safety concerns, accounted for 25.3 percent of responses, while competition from other destinations represented 21.7 percent.

Thanavath said the findings highlighted weaknesses in Thailand’s competitiveness. Vietnam is gaining attention for its value and new attractions, while China and Japan are also strengthening their tourism sectors.

Thailand recorded 23.2 million international arrivals in the first nine months of 2026, down 3.8 percent year-on-year. September saw a sharper 10.5 percent decline. China was the only one of the five leading source markets to register growth, with arrivals increasing 15.2 percent to 3.94 million. Visitors from Malaysia and South Korea fell 15.2 percent and 25.4 percent, respectively.

Tourism operators identified more direct flights and improvements at border checkpoints as their top priorities for government action.

UTCC expects arrivals to rebound to 34 million in 2027, generating about THB 1.63 trillion in international tourism revenue. However, it warned that high energy prices and regional competition could constrain the recovery.