Ocean congestion, tariff clarity could lift Q4 air cargo demand
Dhaka: Air cargo demand could rise in the fourth quarter as shippers move away from congested ocean routes, while a clearer tariff outlook may trigger further shifts, according to freight forwarder Dimerco.
The Taiwanese company made the projection in its October Asia Pacific Freight Report.
Dimerco said ocean shipping continues to face supply chain disruption, and demand has not eased as fast as expected. This has prolonged the peak season, pushing shippers seeking speed and capacity toward air freight.
The forwarder also said China-US shipments held back due to tariff uncertainty will be released once the situation becomes clearer. Because of time constraints, some cargo originally planned for ocean transport may move by air, tightening capacity further.
"Bookings look quiet right now, but that's the calm before the door opens," said Kathy Liu, Vice President for Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group.
Meanwhile, demand linked to artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and year-end retail continues to keep capacity tight at many origins. Air freight remains constrained across several Northeast Asian markets.
Taiwan is seeing strong demand for AI servers, semiconductors, high-performance computing equipment, and electronic components. This is putting upward pressure on rates to the US and across intra-Asia lanes.
In South Korea, conditions have tightened around the Chuseok harvest festival. Some Southeast Asia services from Incheon require bookings up to two weeks in advance.
China presents a mixed picture. Pre-holiday and e-commerce activity is tightening some regional routes, while US and Europe capacity remains more balanced from several origins.
Across Southeast Asia, India, and Australia, air capacity to the US remains tight from most origins. Singapore faces backlog conditions, while Thailand is dealing with capacity reductions and flooding-related delays in Bangkok.
India is entering its festive season, with both air and ocean space to Europe and the US constrained.
